Subway and Chipotle are currently facing lawsuits and increased scrutiny from customers who claim that the sandwiches Subway delivers and the burrito bowls Chipotle serves are skimpier than advertised, that Americans are being misled, and that they aren’t getting what they were promised. In light of inflation and rising prices, consumers this year are demanding to get their money’s worth. And not coincidentally, so are Black voters. This skimpy sandwich dilemma serves as an apt metaphor for the 2024 elections and the new electoral paradigm Democrats face with Black voters, particularly younger Black voters.
This year, two important dynamics defined this paradigm shift. Firstly, Black voter turnout in 2024 decreased compared to 2020. According to AP/VoteCast’s national surveys, over 17.1 million Black voters participated in the 2020 presidential election. However, this year – even with a Black candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket – we saw a decline of more than 2.4 million Black voters, resulting in a 13.5% decline in Black turnout. While exit polls and voter behavior surveys may not always accurately measure turnout, early voting data from Georgia suggests that Black turnout was indeed lower this year.
In addition, there has been a significant shift in partisan identification among Black voters, especially those under 45. While it’s not that Black voters have become more Republican since 2020, they have become less aligned with the Democratic party and are increasingly identifying as independents without any party affiliation. According to the NEP/Edison Research exit polls, four years ago, 74% of Black voters identified as Democrats, 7% as Republicans, and 19% as independents. However, this year, Black partisan alignment changed to 67%, 6%, and 26% respectively.
The decrease in Democratic identification was seen across the Black electorate, with the steepest drop among younger voters. In 2020, 71% of Black voters under 45 identified as Democrats, compared to 57% this year—a significant 14-point decline. Among older Black voters (aged 45 and above), there was a smaller but still noteworthy 4-point decrease in Democratic self-identification from 78% in 2020 to 74% this year.
So, what explains this dwindling Democratic partisan identification? I can identify two primary factors that help account for these shifts in partisan alignment.
As a pollster specializing in the Black electorate, I noticed a shift in attitudes towards Democrats over the past few years. Annually for five years, I’ve surveyed Black voters on various issues, including their views on the statement: The Democratic party takes Black votes for granted and doesn’t do enough to help the Black community. This year marks the first time a majority of Black voters (52%) nationwide agreed with the statement, with almost a third (30%) strongly agreeing.
While this finding should be alarming to Democrats, the most striking difference lies in the views of younger and older Black voters. 61% of Black voters under 45 believe Democrats take them for granted, compared to only 43% of older Black voters. This disparity helps explain why so many more Black voters, especially young Black voters, feel less connected to the Democratic party.
This year, polls and Black focus groups highlighted the soaring cost of living as a major concern. Economic worries, job availability, and rising prices for essentials like food, groceries, and housing topped their list. The enduring racial wealth gap, the generally lower quality of “Black jobs,” slow wage growth, and lower rates of homeownership led to a significant shift in support away from Democrats due to inflation and the increasingly untenable cost of living.
According to this year’s AP/VoteCast survey, 83% of Black voters supported Harris and 16% voted for Trump. The numbers align with the final NYT/Sienna College poll where 82% of Black voters expressed support for Harris and 10% for Trump. However, there are differences among Black men and women, as well as younger and older voters in terms of voting patterns and motivations.
According to the NEP/Edison exit poll, older and younger Black voters had different priorities this year. Older Black voters were more concerned about democracy, while younger voters were more focused on economic concerns and reproductive freedom and were twice as likely to trust Trump with handling both the economy and abortion.
I consistently advise my political clients that Black people are not a monolith, especially when it comes to attitudes about politics and elections, and treating them as such is politically risky. Understand that there is no longer a voting block we can refer to as “the Black vote.” Black voters under 45 are distinct in many ways from Black voters 45 and over, and their electoral choices are going to be determined by their differing priorities – as is the case with most American voters. The 2024 elections should send a clear message to both political parties – but Democrats in particular – that Democrats cannot take Black voters for granted any longer, that delivering on promises does matter, and that candidates must respond to Black voters’ priorities with a full meal of hearty solutions in order to gain their support.
This was written by Mario Brossard, an African American pollster who works in Washington, DC with Global Strategy Group, the largest Democratic polling firm in the country.
