Anti-clean energy policies cause massive 18-point swing against Republicans in recent poll
With Democrats still licking their wounds and soul searching after our loss in 2024, some have called for changes to long-held positions. One recent suggestion: the idea that Democrats should back away from aggressive support for clean energy and climate action. That would be a massive mistake—not just on policy, but politically. The truth is, the GOP attacks on clean energy in their budget bill are wildly unpopular and have handed Democrats a golden opportunity to go on offense. In a recent poll we did, when voters learned of those policies it shifted the generic congressional ballot 18 points in Democrats’ favor – one the largest shifts we’ve ever seen in such an exercise.
Yes, Democrats should seriously reflect on the policies that contributed to last year’s losses. There are certainly issues where voters perceive the party as too liberal and where calibration makes political sense. But climate and clean energy were not among the liabilities. The bulk of the advertising litigated differences on the economy and social issues, not climate and clean energy. Moreover, in post-election polling our firm conducted for Navigator, climate was one of Vice President Harris’ biggest strengths, with a 20-point advantage. Indeed, when 2024 swing voters were presented with a debate on energy and climate, they sided with Democrats by 14 points.
While climate may not be voters’ top issue, it remains a potent concern. From recent Navigator polling: 70% of voters view climate change as a serious problem- and that includes 73% of independents and 63% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Now, the Republicans have created a massive new political opening. For years, the party wrapped themselves in “all-of-the-above” energy rhetoric. But now, just as electricity demand and rising prices are putting energy front and center for voters, the GOP has not only made it clear that their “all-of-the-above” positioning was a fraud, they’ve launched a full-scale assault on the most popular, and cheapest, form of energy – clean energy – and firmly positioned themselves as the party of higher electricity bills – if Democrats make them pay for it.
Their budget eliminated tax credits for solar and wind, gutted fees on methane gas pollution, rolled back environmental safeguards and included special breaks for oil drillers and coal producers. Voters don’t like it. In our recent polling for EDF Action, voters opposed the Republican cuts to clean energy by a 31 point margin; opposed eliminating the fee on methane emissions by 47; and opposed allowing oil and gas to bypass environmental reviews by 46 points.
More critically, as noted above, when voters were given a hypothetical match-up between a Democrat who opposed these provisions and a Republican who supported them, the Democrat won by 20 points. That’s an 18 point swing from the generic ballot. It moved independents and even many Republicans, while also energizing the Democratic base.
Moreover, a critique of Republicans that turns their “all-of-the-above” rhetoric against them in order to tie their anti-clean energy positions to rising prices resonates across the political spectrum. In December polling, a message that critiqued Republicans for their efforts to repeal clean energy tax credits by arguing that “if we want to keep prices from skyrocketing, we should be producing more energy, not repealing support for the fastest growing sources of affordable electricity” performed especially well with both swing voters and the Republican base.
And Republicans didn’t just vote for unpopular policies; they now own rising energy bills we know are coming. In our survey for EDF Action, not only did 86 percent of voters find the prospect that the GOP budget would raise electricity prices by 20% by 2030 concerning, 83% of voters found it to be believable. And that polling came before headlines and clips started rolling in to illustrate the point from venues such as CNBC, CBS, Newsweek, and others.
So, no, Democrats should not run from the fight over clear energy: they should sprint toward it. This is a once-in-a-generation moment to totally redefine this issue in a way that puts Republicans in a terrible political bind and (rightfully) ties them to increasing electricity bills while also (accurately) positioning clean energy as the best solution to meet our growing energy needs and keep electricity prices in check. It wins over swing voters, energizes Democrats, and drives a wedge in the middle of the GOP base.
This was written by Andrew Baumann, a Partner at Global Strategy Group, the largest Democratic polling firm in the country.