GSG is releasing the next installment of our Eye on the Economy research series. Now in its fifth year, the latest edition identifies how voters’ attitudes and perceptions on the economy have shifted over the course of the last year, what economic news is breaking through, and how voters view the early actions of the Trump administration.
Key findings include:
Widespread Pessimism
- Voters’ assessment of the U.S. economy remains negative, with voters more likely to rate the U.S. economy negative today than at this time last year. Most see the U.S. economy as headed in the wrong direction, with the exception of Trump’s political base of MAGA Republicans, who remain optimistic that the economy will improve in the months to come.
- On several key metrics throughout the survey, large differences exist between MAGA Republicans and Republicans who do not identify as MAGA on their assessment of the economy, their expectation for the future, and their estimation of Trump, with non-MAGA Republicans more likely to share independents’ and Democrats’ negative outlook on the economy. Notably, independents are just as negative as they were a year ago.
Personal Concerns Eclipse Partisanship
- Across the board, voters continue to indicate their wages are not keeping up with inflation and for the third consecutive year, large shares say their financial situation has worsened.
- Nearly 7 in 10 voters, including a majority of MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans, believe that the economy is broken, rejecting the premise that the fundamentals of the economy are strong and that things will get easier in the future. As a result, a large majority are primed to believe a recession is likely, with young voters and voters of color more likely than others to worry a recession is near.
Trump Actions Seen As Harmful
- Trump dominates the conversation on the economy, and as a result, partisanship fuels how voters perceive today’s economy and where they think the economy is headed. Democrats and independents largely say that the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office, while MAGA Republicans give him credit for making a positive impact. Despite partisan differences, it’s clear that Trump is not receiving accolades for the economy, and risks disappointing his political base who expect him to deliver on his promises.
- While voters do not believe the fundamentals of the economy are strong, they perceive the Trump changes negatively. Large shares of voters (including non-MAGA Republicans) see many of Trump’s policies as likely to harm the economy and themselves personally, including proposed cuts to Medicaid, revoking Medicare’s ability to negotiate for lower drug prices, tax cuts that benefit the wealthy, and the elimination of consumer protections.
The Musk Effect
- Voters are critical of Musk’s impact on the economy, including large shares of independents, non-MAGA Republicans, and Black and Hispanic voters. Voters tend to believe that billionaires in the Trump administration ultimately present a conflict of interest that will harm everyday people, rejecting the argument that they bring special skills that will benefit the country.
- Since last year, slightly more voters identify “corporate greed” as a top concern for the economy, a potentially related finding that we will monitor in future rounds of polling.
The Economy and the Media Divide
- Differing media preferences and behaviors correspond with partisan preferences, but concerns about the economy transcend partisan attitude or differing media diets, because costs directly impact people at the personal level. Half of voters say they trust major news outlets and publications, while the other half places more trust in independent online content creators. While much of Trump’s base say they distrust the media and prefer to get information online, rather than from legacy media outlets, they are just as negative on the economy and, in some instances, more sensitive on issues related to wages and costs.
- Despite their partisan lean, voters who are opting out of consuming traditional media share others’ concerns about the economy, suggesting Democrats can reach these voters by engaging with them on economic issues.
- When communicating to voters, Democrats should reflect voters’ deeply negative outlook and urgency for change. There is ample room to criticize Trump on his harmful policies, his elevation of Musk, and his failure to address rising costs.
