Global Strategy Group’s Eye on the Economy research series – now in its fifth year – explores voters’ ever-changing perceptions of the economy, personal financial challenges, and the government’s impact in the eyes of voters.
Key insights include:
Trump and the economy divide
- The great divide on the economy is a divide over Trump. The data finds a return to strong partisan consolidation on key economic questions. In many ways, it’s MAGA Republicans versus everyone else, with the former group alone in their positive outlook and hopeful views for the future.
- Half of Americans don’t trust others – and this distrust drives voters’ views on the economy. U.S. voters are split evenly on the question of whether they can trust others, with no major divide on partisan attitudes or financial situation between those with high or low social trust. Despite similarities in voting behavior and economic condition, those with low social trust are more likely to hold negative views on the economy and share a concern for the future.
Tariffs and costs
- Trump and Republicans are losing the debate about tariffs, which voters feel are compounding the problem with costs.
- Many cite tariffs as a reason the economy is headed in the wrong direction and voters roundly reject the argument that tariffs will create jobs, strengthen the economy, and fix our trade deficit.
The challenges facing young voters
- There is broad, bipartisan consensus that things are harder for young people today than previous generations. Like everyone, young people see rising costs as a major financial obstacle, but they give equal weight to structural problems that have existed long before the pandemic: growing income inequality, stagnant wages, and rising levels of personal debt.
- Much of the discourse following 2024 rightfully centered on the need to update our understanding of young voters – not as Democratic base voters, but voters open to persuasion from both parties. This data confirms these findings. As Democrats seek to communicate to young voters, we should do so through the lens of this generation’s unique economic challenges and low levels of social trust.
The new gender divide
- Women are more likely to believe they are falling behind in today’s economy. Consistently, women are more negative on the state of the economy and their personal financial situation.
- Importantly, this distinction is not simply due to political polarization. Regardless of who women voted for in 2024, they are more negative than their male cohorts.
Download the full report to dive deep into the research.